{ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "markdown", "id": "9e4fa299", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## Regression With Fusion Data\n", "\n", "The aim of this notebook is to regress the time until a disruption occurs given a current state in time.\n", "\n", "\n", "In reality, our dataset is comprised of multiple shots, where each shot has individual time readings.\n", "\n", "| Shot Number | Time Step | Feature 1 | Feature 2 |\n", "|-----------------|----------------------|-----------------|-----------------|\n", "| 1 | $t_0$ | - | - |\n", "| 1 | $t_1$ | - | - |\n", "| 1 | $t_2$ | - | - |\n", "| 1 | ... | - | - |\n", "| 1 | $t_m$ | - | - |\n", "...\n", "| Shot Number | Time Step | Feature 1 | Feature 2 |\n", "|-----------------|----------------------|-----------------|-----------------|\n", "| N | $t_0$ | - | - |\n", "| N | $t_1$ | - | - |\n", "| N | $t_2$ | - | - |\n", "| N | ... | - | - |\n", "| N | $t_m$ | - | - |\n", "\n", "In good approximation, we can treat individual readings in time as independent measurements and regress directly upon them.\n", "\n", "You can think of this as a sort of state estimation:\n", "\n", "Given state $S_i$, independent of $S_{j \\neq i}$, we want to regress how long the stability of our fusion process will last.\n", "\n", "Lets load our data and take a look at the features. We also need to drop some features as these will bias the regression.\n", "\n", "We will drop: \n", "\n", "__Disruptive__ - this is a binary label indicating whether or not a disruption has occured.\n", "\n", "__Shot__ - this is an indexing variable for individual shots.\n" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 251, "id": "50f5c4ec", "metadata": { "scrolled": true }, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/html": [ "
\n", " | z_error | \n", "radiated_fraction | \n", "beta_p | \n", "lower_gap | \n", "n_e | \n", "ssep | \n", "Wmhd | \n", "p_icrf | \n", "upper_gap | \n", "beta_n | \n", "... | \n", "time_until_disrupt | \n", "n_equal_1_normalized | \n", "Greenwald_fraction | \n", "li | \n", "v_loop | \n", "time | \n", "q95 | \n", "p_oh | \n", "p_rad | \n", "ip_error | \n", "
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148403 | \n", "-0.000308 | \n", "0.348539 | \n", "0.294560 | \n", "0.049893 | \n", "2.203347e+20 | \n", "-0.025936 | \n", "21782.460938 | \n", "3.840209e+01 | \n", "0.093674 | \n", "0.742089 | \n", "... | \n", "0.0160 | \n", "0.001137 | \n", "0.604698 | \n", "1.259797 | \n", "-2.511963 | \n", "1.0899 | \n", "2.940394 | \n", "1.125851e+06 | \n", "392415.960065 | \n", "271289.0625 | \n", "
169792 | \n", "0.000219 | \n", "0.018243 | \n", "0.257212 | \n", "0.078944 | \n", "1.575422e+20 | \n", "-0.013643 | \n", "44130.542969 | \n", "3.537796e+06 | \n", "0.103161 | \n", "0.439488 | \n", "... | \n", "0.2849 | \n", "0.001021 | \n", "0.309502 | \n", "1.414968 | \n", "-0.851196 | \n", "1.4200 | \n", "4.553412 | \n", "4.030026e+05 | \n", "71890.617371 | \n", "104532.6250 | \n", "
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44013 | \n", "0.000420 | \n", "-0.329507 | \n", "0.092925 | \n", "0.052791 | \n", "7.200679e+19 | \n", "0.010766 | \n", "26898.298828 | \n", "1.013809e+02 | \n", "0.087245 | \n", "0.192169 | \n", "... | \n", "0.1745 | \n", "0.000827 | \n", "0.106209 | \n", "1.382588 | \n", "0.796661 | \n", "0.6400 | \n", "3.791784 | \n", "-1.451691e+06 | \n", "478308.292191 | \n", "-234166.7500 | \n", "
22454 | \n", "0.001223 | \n", "0.350599 | \n", "0.189295 | \n", "0.055474 | \n", "1.547137e+20 | \n", "-0.007201 | \n", "53719.265625 | \n", "7.274901e+05 | \n", "0.108699 | \n", "0.408583 | \n", "... | \n", "0.8579 | \n", "0.000525 | \n", "0.233198 | \n", "1.368598 | \n", "-1.063354 | \n", "0.6800 | \n", "3.532992 | \n", "1.178322e+06 | \n", "668175.674777 | \n", "-209515.4375 | \n", "
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